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    為何比特幣暴漲,山寨幣卻在一直跌?

    來源:神馬作文http://www.sxsrhm1.com

      BTC突破1萬美金后,吸引了眾多的關注,山寨幣們也不想放過這波行情。

      山寨幣,英文名Bitcoinalternative,意思是“比特幣代替品”,指以比特幣代碼為范本,把比特幣區塊鏈的底層技術進行部分修改后的加密貨幣。

      一開始,人們把在比特幣之外的所有加密貨幣都稱為山寨幣,甚至包括以太坊(ETH),萊特幣(LTC)等。

      但隨著加密貨幣市場快速成長,以太坊等加密貨幣迅速崛起,證明了自己的實用價值,成為了幣市中的硬通貨,從而摘掉了“山寨幣”的帽子,成為了“主流幣”。

      如今,山寨幣專指非比特幣和主流幣的其他小幣種,可以說幾乎每天都有新的山寨幣誕生。

      在變幻莫測的加密貨幣市場,有這樣一個規律:比特幣漲,山寨幣漲,比特幣跌,山寨幣跌。然而就在過去兩天比特幣暴漲的過程中,山寨幣卻毫無動靜。

      為了避免被比特幣吸血或者趁著熱度收割一波,不少山寨幣各自展開了“自救運動”。

      【深鏈原創】

      文丨深鏈財經

      比特幣漲了,但我的比特幣更少了

      沒有什么比比特幣上漲更讓人興奮和后悔的了。

      6月25日,比特幣開始由10000美元向11000美元發起挑戰,接下來的26、27日,相繼突破11000美元、12000美元,6月27日的凌晨,站上13968美元的高點。

      這一輪的上漲有多瘋狂?2017年的牛市,比特幣從12000美元上漲至13000美元,花費了17個小時,而這一次僅僅為2個小時。

      比特幣的急速上漲讓踏空者痛心疾首:為什么8000美元時我沒有建倉?為什么3000美元時我沒有抄底?另外還有數字貨幣投資者在朋友圈發出這樣的自嘲:我現在最大的壓力是別人以為我賺錢了。

      對于比特幣本輪的上漲,普遍認為有以下幾點原因:全球降息潮、資產避險、機構資金入場、Facebook發幣利好、美國商品期貨交易委員會批準LedgerX提供實物結算的比特幣期貨合約。

      而其中,機構資金入場在很多人看來是比特幣上漲的“功臣”。

      如果說2017年的牛市歸功于以太坊和lCO,那么本輪比特幣牛市則是因為機構投資者的大量增持,而且在FOMO(“害怕錯過”效應)的影響下,機構對比特幣的增持也越發貪婪。

      此前有報道稱灰度投資公司在2019年4月份購買了超過11000個比特幣,這個數量相當于比特幣每月供應量的21%。

      而根據灰度投資6月25日最新披露的數據來看,其加密貨幣總資產規模達到了26億美元,其中比特幣信托基金占到其管理資產的95%。

      就在散戶們看著比特幣一點一點上漲觀望時,機構毫不猶豫吸走了市場上的比特幣。

      另外,這一輪比特幣的上漲并沒有帶動山寨幣。

      在過往的預期里,山寨幣會根據比特幣漲跌而漲跌,但是這一次山寨幣卻“紋絲不動”,這讓不少投資者叫苦不不迭。

      隨著比特幣大漲,比特幣市值占比迅速攀升,根據Coinmarketcap數據顯示,目前BTC市值占比目前已經升至62.5%,創下近兩年記錄高點,其他主流幣以及山寨幣占比均持續下降,有的山寨幣市值在這輪牛市中反而不斷縮水。

      如果說“沒有賺錢就是虧錢”只是心理上的虧損的話,那么在比特幣暴漲的時候,不少山寨幣的持有者則真真實實的虧了。

      山寨幣被拋棄

      為什么比特幣漲,山寨幣跌;比特幣跌,山寨幣暴跌?

      與2017年牛市不同,這一輪牛市并不是全面牛市,僅僅只是比特幣牛市,根本原因在于,牛市的邏輯變了。

      眾所周知,2017年的牛市行情主要由以太坊、EOS以及lCO幣種帶動,比特幣本身的漲幅并不大,相較于一些山寨幣幾十倍、上百倍的漲幅,僅有幾倍漲幅的比特幣反而是拖了后腿。

      當時,甚至有人認為以太坊或者瑞波將取代比特幣的位置,登頂市值第一。

      “區塊鏈技術“、“智能合約”等概念是2017年牛市的主流,因此“公鏈”項目受到熱捧,而在2019年,公鏈已經成為過去時,市場熱度正回歸到比特幣本身,目前,比特幣是區塊鏈唯一一個落地應用。

      同時,幣圈KOL藍起表示,老幣種,上方都是套牢盤重重,極少會有莊家愿意從自己口袋里掏錢出來,迅速解放去年憑本事套住的韭菜,只有比特幣除外。為了避免牛市陷阱(大盤漲了很多,自己的幣就是不漲),還是得重倉配置比特幣。

      從資金來源看,2017年的牛市主要是有個人資金炒作上漲,而這一輪牛市明顯是由機構資金帶動。

      比特幣分析師Rhythm曾在5月底的推文中揭示了華爾街機構在大肆囤積比特幣。

      數據顯示,灰度投資公司(GrayscaleInvestments)在2019年4月購買了超過11,000個BTC,相當于是購買了比特幣每月供應量54,000個的21%。

      如果灰度投資繼續以每月當前的速度購買BTC,那么2020年產量減半后,它可能擁有比特幣每月供應量的42%。

      根據比特幣投資公司灰度Grayscale提供的最新數據,其加密資產總市值近30億美元,其中比特幣信托基金約占其管理資產的96%,占據絕對的領導地位。

      對于大體量的機構資金而言,足夠大的資金蓄水池才是他們的棲息之地,在當前整個加密貨幣資產類別中,只有比特幣這一個選擇。

      TheBlock研究主管拉里·塞馬克LarryCermak同樣表示,“如果要我做出稍有根據的猜測,那么這輪上漲的開始是由大型投資者推動,散戶支撐了比特幣價格反彈的持續。”

      當比特幣價格被機構資金不斷拉升時,散戶對山寨幣缺乏信仰,紛紛拋棄山寨,轉買比特幣,這導致資金加速向比特幣轉移,這就是俗稱的“比特幣吸血效應”。

      比特幣價格漲得越快,吸血效應越明顯。

      盡管如此,仍有很多人堅信,比特幣漲完,山寨幣將會和2017年一樣成倍上漲,對此,著名交易員PeterBrandt表示,那些期待山寨幣大漲的人,可能要失望了,正如2001年科技股泡沫破滅一樣,山寨幣也會永遠的破產。

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